Daily Analysis -Tesla (TSLA)

• Today, February 12, 2026, is dominated by the Ex-Dividend move in XOM and the US Initial Jobless Claims at 1:30 pm London. After yesterday’s NFP beat, the market is looking for any sign of labour cooling to justify a Fed rate cut in Q2.

• The market is digesting the "NFP Shock" from yesterday's rescheduled jobs report, which showed stronger-than-expected growth and has effectively delayed Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Today's primary factual triggers are the US Initial Jobless Claims and a heavy focus on Exxon Mobil's ex-dividend date.

Tesla closed at $428.60, extending its rally for a fourth consecutive session (+7.1%). The move was driven by renewed focus on Tesla’s solar and energy expansion, including a proposed 100 GW solar manufacturing scale-up estimated to add $6–$14 per share in valuation impact.

Narratives around SpaceX’s acquisition of xAI and potential solar-powered AI infrastructure have further fueled investor imagination. However, Tesla remains highly sensitive to yields. Lower-than-expected Jobless Claims would reinforce labour tightness and keep rates elevated, pressuring high-growth multiples.

Bottom Line: Energy expansion and AI synergies support sentiment, but rate sensitivity limits conviction.